Abstract Digital transformation refers to the widespread use of digital technologies in ways that reshape societal and economic activity, with significant impacts on sustainable development and climate challenges—both for better and for worse. Using statistical models calibrated to historical evidence in 62 countries across 12 world regions, we project future digital transformation within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), adding contextual richness to this scenario framework used extensively in global climate research. In some scenarios, we find a pervasive and prolonged digital divide with up to 45% of the assessed population by mid-century still residing in countries with relatively low levels of digital transformation despite ever-deepening digitalisation in wealthier countries. We set out six use cases for how our explicit representation of digital transformation within the SSPs enables quantitative assessment of digitalisation’s impact on energy, emissions, climate policy, and Sustainable Development Goals. We also discuss challenges with using empirically calibrated models to project digital transformation given its rapid evolution and socioeconomic implications.
Fan et al. (Fri,) studied this question.