August 14, 2025Open Access

Assessment of Solar Radiation Potential in Kano, Northwestern Nigeria Using the Angstrom–prescott Empirical Model for Renewable Energy Planning

ABAfsheen BashirIndian Institute of Technology Jammu AAAftab AhmedShaikh Zayed Hospital AIAhmed IbrahimEdith Cowan University

Key Points

Kano demonstrates exceptional solar energy potential with peak radiation values of 25-26 MJ/m²/day, indicating high feasibility for development.
This analysis highlights a consistent 8-month high-performance period, with solar PV capacity factors exceeding the global average of 15%.
Utilizing the Angstrom-Prescott model, researchers derived regression coefficients from empirical data covering five years of solar measurements.
The findings support large-scale solar installations, recommending 100-500 MW utility-scale projects to facilitate Nigeria's renewable energy transition.

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of solar energy potential in Kano, Nigeria, using five years of empirical data (2019-2023) to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale renewable energy deployment. The widely recognized Angstrom-Prescott model was employed to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces, utilizing site-specific regression coefficients derived from Kano's geographical coordinates (12.0022°N latitude). Solar radiation measurements, sunshine duration data, and extra-terrestrial radiation calculations were analyzed to characterize seasonal variability and long-term reliability of the solar resource. Results demonstrate exceptional solar energy potential with peak global solar radiation values of 25-26 MJ/m²/day (approximately 7.0 kWh/m²/day) during optimal months (April-August), placing Kano in the high-resource category for solar development. The analysis reveals a consistent 8-month high-performance period (March-October) with radiation exceeding 22 MJ/m²/day, supporting solar PV capacity factors of 18-22 significantly above the global average of 15%. Peak sunshine hours of 10-12+ hours during May-July provide extended daily generation periods ideal for both utility-scale photovoltaic installations and concentrated solar thermal projects. Multi-year analysis indicates high year-to-year consistency in radiation patterns with predictable seasonal variations, showing 65% radiation difference between peak summer and minimum winter periods. Winter months (December-February) exhibit 25-30% reduction in solar potential due to harmattan dust effects and lower solar angles. Strong correlation between radiation levels and sunshine duration across all study years confirms data reliability and measurement precision. The findings support immediate large-scale solar project deployment with recommended utility-scale installations of 100-500 MW capacity. Economic viability is enhanced by the extended high-radiation period and predictable seasonal patterns that facilitate strategic grid planning and energy storage integration. Policy recommendations include implementing seasonal tariff structures, establishing solar resource monitoring networks, and developing 1-2 GW regional solar capacity to position Kano as a West African solar energy hub. This comprehensive five-year dataset provides a robust foundation for renewable energy planning, confirming Kano's world-class solar resource suitable for large-scale development and supporting Nigeria's renewable energy transition objectives.

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