In such an uncertain world, education means more than just knowledge transmission; it also involves comparison and competition. This 3-year longitudinal study (September 2020–September 2023) tracked 94 students from a rural junior high school in Guangdong, China, selected via convenience sampling. Through structural equation modeling (SEM), we aimed to understand which factors influenced students’ academic advancement directions and the role of online education in this process. The results were surprising, as we found that fluctuations in academic performance did not significantly impact students’ advancement directions. Instead, initial performance and self-directed learning abilities played a decisive role. Cluster analysis also revealed that students who worked hard but had a weaker academic foundation could not overcome the disadvantages associated with their starting point. Unfortunately, online learning appeared to provide limited assistance in such situations. These conclusions imply that the education system needs better instruction strategies and information technology tools to support the development of disadvantaged students and bridge the educational trajectory disparities caused by differing starting points.
Bao et al. (Wed,) studied this question.