Prognostic Value of Circulating Tumor DNA in HR+/HER2− Stage I–III Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review

Background: Hormone receptor-positive (HR+), HER2-negative breast cancer accounts for the majority of breast cancer diagnoses. While outcomes have improved with neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies, the risk of late recurrence persists, and there remains a critical need for reliable biomarkers to guide prognosis and post-treatment surveillance. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), detectable via liquid biopsy, has emerged as a promising tool for monitoring minimal residual disease and predicting survival outcomes. This systematic review evaluates the association between ctDNA detection during neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment and survival outcomes in early-stage HR+/HER2− breast cancer. Methods: This systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. A comprehensive literature search of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was conducted to identify studies published through 3 May 2024 that evaluated ctDNA as a prognostic biomarker in stage I–III HR+/HER2− breast cancer. We included studies reporting recurrence-free survival, invasive disease-free survival, or overall survival and excluded non-original studies, conference abstracts, and non-English articles. Data extraction and qualitative synthesis were performed, and the risk of bias was qualitatively assessed across studies. No review protocol was registered. Results: Eleven studies comprising 1644 patients met the inclusion criteria. In the neoadjuvant setting, ctDNA positivity prior to treatment initiation was associated with inferior survival outcomes. In the adjuvant setting, detection of ctDNA during or after treatment was consistently linked to poorer recurrence-free and invasive disease-free survival. Across studies, ctDNA detection was a significant negative prognostic marker. Conclusions: This systematic review supports the prognostic value of ctDNA in HR+/HER2− early-stage breast cancer. Limitations include small sample sizes, observational study designs, and heterogeneity in ctDNA assays. Standardization of ctDNA testing methods and further prospective trials are needed to validate its clinical utility and explore its potential role in guiding therapeutic interventions.