Water Usage and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transition from Coal to Natural Gas: A Case Study of San Juan County, New Mexico

This study evaluates the trade-offs and environmental impacts of transitioning from coal to natural gas (NG) for electricity generation in San Juan County, with a focus on greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption. It addresses key questions, including how water use and emissions change as the county shifts from coal to natural gas. The research analyzes water usage and emissions of CO2, NOx, and SO2 during both the extraction and combustion phases of coal and natural gas. Specifically, it compares water consumption and direct emissions from coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants. The analysis utilizes ten years of combustion-phase data from the Four Corners (coal-fired) and Afton (natural gas-fired) power plants in New Mexico. Linear regression was applied to the historical data, and four transition scenarios were modeled: (1) 100% coal-generated electricity, (2) a 20% reduction in coal with a corresponding increase in NG, (3) a 50% reduction in coal with a corresponding increase in NG, and (4) a complete transition to NG. Regression analysis and scenario calculations indicate that switching to NG results in significant water savings and reduced emissions. Water savings in the combustion phase decrease by up to 2750 gallons per MWh, valued at USD 0.743 per MWh when electricity is generated 100% from NG. CO2 emissions are substantially reduced, with the largest decrease being 0.6127 metric tons per MWh, valued at USD 61.26 per MWh. NOx emissions in the combustion phase decline by 0.0018 metric tons per MWh, with an economic valuation of USD 14.61 per MWh, while SO2 emissions decrease by 0.0006 metric tons per MWh, valued at USD 11.91 per MWh when electricity generation is 100% NG-based. The results highlight the environmental and economic advantages of transitioning from coal to NG. The findings underscore the environmental and economic advantages of transitioning from coal to natural gas. Water conservation is particularly vital in San Juan County’s semi-arid climate. Additionally, lower emissions support climate change mitigation, enhance air quality, and improve public health. The economic valuation of emissions reductions further highlights the financial benefits of this transition, positioning natural gas as a more sustainable and economically viable energy source for the region. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the need to adopt cleaner energy sources such as renewable energy to achieve long-term environmental sustainability and economic efficiency.