The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth: The Role of Social Policy Models in Oecd Countries

The article examines the impact of population ageing on economic growth in OECD countries, taking into account the specifics of different models of social policy. The main goal of the paper is to identify the specifics of the economic impact of ageing within each model (Scandinavian, Anglo-Saxon, Continental, Mediterranean, and Central and Eastern European) and to assess their ability to adapt to demographic changes. The analysis is based on ARDL and PMG panel models, which allows to take into account the short- and long-run effects of ageing on economic growth. The results show significant differences in the impact of ageing on the economy depending on the model of social policy: the negative short-run effect is most evident in the Scandinavian model, while in the Mediterranean model, the negative impact persists in the long run. At the same time, countries with developed private and corporate pension systems, as in the Anglo-Saxon or Continental models, can better adapt to demographic challenges by reducing the burden on public finances. The findings of the study help to identify best practices from different social models to reduce the negative impact of ageing on the economy and ensure an adequate level of social protection.