Assessment of structural changes in exports and price situation on the Ukrainian grain market during the war

The study aimed to assess the main export problems, measure price imbalances in the grain market, and compare the impact of world prices and exchange rate dynamics on domestic selling prices of wheat and corn before and during the war. The following methods were used: comparative analysis, statistical, tabular, graphical, calculation and design, abstract and logical, as well as correlation and regression analysis tools. The study revealed a significant structural transformation of wheat and corn exports during the war, with an almost twofold decrease in the share of Asian countries and an increase in the share of European countries in wheat exports from 1.7% to 48.3% and corn from 32.7% to 56.8%. The negative impact of the logistics transformation of exports on domestic and foreign prices in the grain market was determined. Compared to the pre-war period, domestic wheat and corn prices decreased by 22.7% and 28.2%. An indicative definition of price disproportions showed that before the war, world prices for wheat and corn almost corresponded to domestic prices, while during the war this ratio increased to 2.2 and 1.6 times, respectively. The modelling shows that before the war, a 1 USD/t increase in the global wheat price led to an equivalent increase in the domestic selling price by 0.71 USD/t, while a 1 UAH increase in the dollar increased the price by 3.2 USD/t. The impact of the selected factors has changed dramatically in the war: a corresponding increase in the global wheat price by 1 USD/t leads to an increase in the domestic selling price by only 0.19 USD/t, which is almost 4 times less than in peacetime, and a 1 UAH increase in the dollar reduces the domestic selling price of 1 tonne of wheat by 2.26 USD/t. The corresponding impact of the global corn price increase on the domestic price during the war was halved from 0.66 to 0.31 USD/t, and the upward movement of the exchange rate by 1 UAH reduced the selling price of corn by 4.65 USD/t