Abstract Water scarcity, climate change, and fragmented governance structures present escalating challenges for sustainable water management, with particularly severe impacts in semi-arid and transboundary river basins. Addressing these interconnected pressures requires governance models that integrate technical, institutional, and socio-economic dimensions while remaining adaptable to uncertain futures. This study develops and applies the Adaptive Integrated Water Governance Model for Azerbaijan (AIWGM-AZ) to evaluate policy pathways under combined climate and institutional risks. The model employs a modular, indicator-driven, scenario-based framework that integrates climate flow projections, water-saving technology assessments, governance coordination metrics, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance indicators.Applied to two contrasting regions – Aran and Absheron – the AIWGM-AZ framework assessed nine combined climate-governance scenarios. Findings show that the Governance Reform scenario delivers the most balanced performance across efficiency, ecosystem health, affordability, feasibility, scalability, and SDG alignment, while the Climate Stress scenario demonstrates that adaptive measures can partially offset environmental impacts despite reduced economic feasibility. The integrated multi-criteria assessment confirms that governance-oriented reforms, coupled with targeted technological investments and climate adaptation strategies, generate synergistic gains across institutional, technical, and socio-economic domains.Beyond its national relevance, the AIWGM-AZ model is transferable to other water-stressed regions, particularly in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and comparable semi-arid contexts. By linking scenario-based governance evaluation with SDG monitoring, the framework offers a scalable decision-support tool for aligning local actions with global sustainability goals. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to reconcile climate resilience, water security, and sustainable development at both regional and international scales.
Pasha et al. (Fri,) studied this question.