This study responds to the rising need for effective planning tools to support foreign trade policy amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a more fragmented global economy in today’s multipolar world. The article comprises two parts. The first part analyses Russia–China foreign trade between 2013 and 2023. While trade volumes have grown rapidly, the structure has remained largely unchanged— it is characterized by Russia’s continued reliance on raw material exports and a high share of engineering goods in imports from China. As both countries transition toward the sixth technological paradigm, there is a pressing need to reorient foreign trade toward high-tech and highly processed exports, drawing on their respective scientific and technological capabilities. The second part examines how revising the indicative planning approach, with a focus on competitive regional research infrastructure (RI) projects at the microeconomic level, can contribute to this transformation. The core hypothesis is that such RI projects could stimulate the development of foreign trade between Russia and China. To evaluate this potential, the study proposes three interrelated models: (1) a financial and economic model of RI project implementation; (2) an extended intersectoral, multiregional input–output model incorporating a technological column for RI development; and (3) a foreign trade model capturing bilateral trade flows. The case of “Akademgorodok 2.0” (2013–2030) is used to illustrate how RI-driven production of high-tech goods could reshape trade dynamics. This integrated modelling toolkit can be used for scenario-based experiments aligned with long-term trends in scientific and technological development. Preliminary results suggest that by 2030, Russia’s export structure could shift notably toward engineering and chemical products, bringing it more in line with the innovation paths of technologically advanced trade partners.
Новикова et al. (Wed,) studied this question.