System dynamics simulation for supply chain performance under maritime transport disruptions: a case study of Suez Canal blockage

Abstract Maritime transportation is crucial for global trade and supply chain operations. However, it is vulnerable to unexpected disruptions or congestion, which affect the efficiency of supply chains. This study proposes a system dynamics‐based simulation model to investigate manufacturing supply chain performance under maritime transport disruptions, where parts producers and manufacturers are most directly affected by main channel disruptions or port congestion, such as additional financial costs and reputation losses. The model includes multi‐echelon supply chain, maritime transport performance, and cost evaluation subsystems, where cause and effect relations of procurement, production, inventory, sales, and shipping capacity are depicted in each subsystem. Case analysis of the Suez Canal blockage in 2021 is provided based on the system dynamics simulation, and different combinations of disruption scenarios and mitigation strategies are analyzed. Managerial insights for supply chain managers into mitigating the effects of potential maritime transport disruptions on supply chain performance are also summarized.