With the continuous expansion of urban rail transit networks, construction safety of connecting passages—as critical weak links in underground structural systems—has become pivotal for project success. Although artificial ground freezing technology effectively addresses adverse geological conditions (e.g., high permeability and weak self-stability), it is influenced by multi-field coupling effects (temperature, stress, and seepage fields), which may trigger chain risks such as freezing pipe fractures and frozen curtain leakage during construction. This study deconstructed the freezing method workflow (‘drilling pipe-laying → active freezing → channel excavation → structural support’) and established a hierarchical evaluation index system incorporating geological characteristics, technological parameters, and environmental impacts by considering sandy soil phase-change features and hydro-thermal coupling effects. For weight calculation, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was innovatively applied to balance subjective-objective assignment deviations, revealing that the excavation support stage (weight: 52.94%) and thawing-grouting stage (31.48%) most significantly influenced overall risk. Subsequently, a Bayesian network-based risk assessment model was constructed, with prior probabilities updated in real-time using construction monitoring data. Results indicated an overall construction risk probability of 46.3%, with the excavation stage exhibiting the highest sensitivity index (3.97%), identifying it as the core risk control link. These findings provide a quantitative basis for dynamically identifying construction risks and optimizing mitigation measures, offering substantial practical value for enhancing safety in subway connecting passage construction within water-rich sandy strata.
Guo et al. (Thu,) studied this question.