Modern Approaches to the Formation of a Methodology for Assessing the Effectiveness of a Country's Foreign Trade

This article focuses on analyzing modern approaches to forming a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of a country's foreign trade under sanctions pressure. The object of the study is foreign trade activity, the subject is methodological approaches to assessing its adaptation potential and efficiency. The authors conduct a critical review and synthesis of modern theoretical concepts (J-curve theory, Heckscher-Ohlin models, fi rm self-selection and learning-by-exporting concepts) and empirical methods (ARDL panel models, GARCH volatility analysis, DEA method with window approach, DMC/TMC indices, PRODY, CCA, TPI, LPI). Particular attention is paid to adapting these methods to the specifics of the Russian economy, characterized by commodity dependence and structural shifts under the influence of sanctions. Based on the analysis of the limitations of existing approaches and regional case studies (EU, ECOWAS, EAEU, Armenia, Czechia, Slovakia, Iran, Venezuela), the authors justify the need for methodology modification. The integration of sanctions risk indicators, digital readiness, and structural transformation metrics into dynamic models is proposed, along with the development of a system of indirect indicators to account for shadow flows and the application of Big Data to improve the accuracy of forecasting adaptation trajectories and identifying growth points under long-term constraints.