Digital divide as an explanatory variable for dropout in higher education

The digital divide is a multidimensional phenomenon that significantly affects access, learning, and retention in higher education. This study aimed to simulate the effects of digital inequality on student dropout rates in undergraduate programs. Using a System Dynamics methodology, a causal loop and a stock-and-flow model were developed and calibrated with empirical data from Colombia, including dropout rates, enrollment levels, household income, internet connectivity, and availability of digital devices. The model was validated structurally and behaviorally, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Simulations were performed under three scenarios: variations in household income (affecting connectivity and equipment provision), changes in enrollment rates, and effectiveness of digital training programs. Results reveal that structural limitations, especially poor infrastructure and high dropout rates from training programs, are major drivers of student attrition related to the digital divide. The findings emphasize that dropout is not equally distributed but is shaped by socioeconomic and institutional factors. Addressing the digital divide requires systemic and policy-level interventions. This study contributes to Sustainable Development Goal 4 by offering a simulation-based approach to inform strategies that promote digital equity and reduce educational exclusion in higher education.