Presidential Change and Foreign Policy Role Shifts: The United States at the UN, 2013-2020

This paper examines how presidential change affects the United States’ (US) foreign policy role conceptions, with a particular focus on its orientation toward the Liberal International Order (LIO). Conventional assumptions in International Relations literature suggest that the US, as both the founder and also the defender of the LIO, maintains a relatively stable foreign policy posture regardless of leadership transitions (Ikenberry, 2011). Challenging this expectation, we investigate the transition between Barack Obama’s second term (2013-2016) and Donald Trump’s first term in office (2017-2020). Drawing on Role Theory, we conducted a content analysis of eight US addresses to the United Nations General Assembly, coding role conceptions into four categories: assertive, cooperative, neutral, and challenger. Our findings reveal a clear departure from cooperative foreign policy roles under the Obama administration toward challenger foreign policy roles under the Trump administration. This shift underscores that presidential leadership can significantly influence the US’ stance toward the LIO, challenging the expectations of continuity of foreign policy across the US presidents. By analyzing the frequency and distribution of foreign policy roles elaborated discursively over time, this study highlights the importance of leadership styles and rhetorical choices in shaping grand foreign policy orientations. The findings contribute to debates about the resilience of the LIO and the extent to which domestic political change can influence global order commitments.