Correlation Between Physical and Technical Parameters in Football Matches and Match Result Relationship

Abstract Background: Contemporary football performance paradigms emphasize physical metrics, although emerging evidence suggests that technical execution may be more critical for match outcomes. This study quantified the relative impact of physical and technical parameters on competitive success in elite football. Methods: Using a retrospective correlational design, we analyzed 49 matches from a Turkish Super League club (2022-2023 season). Physical metrics (sprint distance, high-intensity running) and technical parameters (expected goals xG, key passes, shot accuracy) were collected via Sportsbase tracking. The analyses included Spearman correlations, Kruskal-Wallis tests, and ordinal logistic regression with LASSO regularization. The statistical power reached 98% (f²=0.35, α=0.05). Results: Technical parameters dominated outcome prediction: xG showed the strongest correlation with results (ρ = .72, *p* .20) Winning teams generated 76% higher xG than losers (*d* = 1.2) despite covering less sprint distance (194.8m vs. 201.3m). The regression model explained 68% of the outcome variance (Nagelkerke R² = .68). Conclusion: Technical execution, particularly chance creation (xG) and creative passing, outweighs physical output in determining match outcomes. These findings necessitate reallocating training focus from conditioning to context-specific technical development and restructuring talent identification based on technical intelligence. Future research should validate these thresholds across diverse leagues.