September 26, 2025

Nuclear boomerang. There are neither eternal allies, nor perpetual enemies, but only nuclear arms are eternal and perpetual

Key Points

The nuclear arms control system faces its deepest crisis as the expiry of New START looms in 2026, raising significant concerns.
Without the New START extension or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is poised for deep undermining.
Changes in political relations, as illustrated by historical examples, showcase the lasting nature of nuclear weapons amid shifting alliances.
The increasing uncertainty regarding global power dynamics points to a dual challenge of securing nuclear stability and managing geopolitical risks.

Abstract

It has become a platitude that the world is going through the deepest crisis of the nuclear arms control system built over the last sixty years. In February 2026, the term of the New START expires and it is impossible to extend it once again; there is no chance of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty entering full legal force; and without these pillars the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will be deeply undercut. Moreover, there is a growing pressure of some vested interests in favor of resuming explosive nuclear tests and transfering nuclear arms to foreign allies and partners. Meanwhile history has provided a number of examples of how the states’ political relations change while the military nuclear technologies stay and turn from “friendly” to “hostile” (China, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and South Africa). Whatever the forthcoming world order becomes as a result of its ongoing transformation, nuclear weapons will stay as one of the main elements of international relations as well as the peaceful atomic energy intertwined with the dual purpose technologies. The future polycentric world will require a much better quality nuclear arms control system than previously, when security problems were the concern of the two superpowers. Donald Trump’s return to power is increasing the uncertainty of the future world order, creating both new opportunities and big risks. In view of the forthcoming renovations, the present comprehensive nuclear arms control crisis must be contained and overcome.

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