Abstract Indonesia, which holds around 30% of global nickel reserves, has pursued a downstreaming strategy since the 2014 ban on raw ore exports, aiming to increase domestic value added and strengthen its role in the global electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. This study evaluates the causal impact of the policy on economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), export transformation, and geopolitical positioning over the period 2005–2025. A mixed-method longitudinal design is employed, combining intervention analysis with a policy dummy (2005–2013 = 0; 2014–2025 = 1) and robustness checks, including placebo tests, alongside qualitative scenario modeling of geopolitical dynamics. The results show that downstreaming increased the mining sector’s annual GDP contribution by IDR 12.86 trillion (β₁ = 12.857; p JEL Classification: F13, F21, O13, Q32, L72
Syamsul Bachri Soamole (Wed,) studied this question.