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This is a Quantitative Study study.

October 10, 2025

Disequilibrium Model for Stumpage Price Analysis

Key Points

The model predicts stumpage prices using historical data and market variables, demonstrating its effectiveness.
Key factors include lagged agricultural wages and inventory levels in the cottonwood lumber market.
Stumpage prices for cottonwood in Louisiana were forecasted successfully for a span of 15 years.
The model's predictions relied solely on secondary data sources, indicating its potential for broader application.

Abstract

Abstract An econometric model that accounts for competitive and disequilibrium market forces shows promise for estimating stumpage prices. Lagged agricultural wages, lagged cottonwood stumpage prices, and inventory and profit levels in the cottonwood lumber market comprise the 3-equation empirical model. Quarterly stumpage prices for cottonwood in Louisiana were predicted satisfactorily for the period of fit, 1956 through 1965, and for 5 years beyond, 1966 to 1970. Of particular value in this case was the ability of the model to predict solely from secondary data sources. Forest Sci. 17:246-251.

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