The Effect of Population Growth and Human Development Index on Economic Growth and Unemployment in East Kalimantan Province

This study investigates the impact of population growth and the Human Development Index (HDI) on economic growth and unemployment in East Kalimantan Province using path analysis with secondary data from 2014–2023. Population growth and human development are two critical demographic and socio-economic factors that often generate complex effects on regional economic performance. The results indicate that population growth has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, highlighting the pressure that rapid demographic expansion places on natural resources, infrastructure, and employment absorption capacity. Conversely, HDI demonstrates a positive and significant relationship with economic growth, suggesting that improvements in education, health, and income contribute to higher productivity and competitiveness. On the other hand, the direct effect of population growth and HDI on unemployment is negative but statistically insignificant, which implies that the availability of jobs and structural conditions of the labor market are more influential than demographic changes alone. Interestingly, economic growth shows a negative and significant effect on unemployment, supporting the classical theory that sustained economic expansion generates employment opportunities and reduces joblessness. Mediation tests reveal that economic growth does not significantly mediate the relationship between population growth or HDI and unemployment, underscoring that unemployment dynamics in East Kalimantan are influenced by broader structural factors such as sectoral concentration, policy effectiveness, and industrial diversification. These findings highlight the importance of integrating demographic management, human capital development, and sectoral economic strategies in policy formulation. Strengthening human development while controlling excessive population growth can provide a solid foundation for inclusive and sustainable economic progress in East Kalimantan.