Abstract Flash droughts, characterised by sudden and severe development of dry soil moisture conditions, have detrimental impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. Since reliable projections of any kind of drought are crucial for drought risk mitigation, studying how these flash droughts evolve as warming increases becomes essential. Herein, we analyse changes in flash drought frequency, geographic extent, and regional variability across Europe under incremental global warming levels of 1°C, 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C. Soil moisture simulations are obtained using the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), which has been forced with the bias-corrected meteorological data from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3b). We use a percentile-based method to determine the rapid decline in soil moisture conditions during the growing season. Our results show that Northern and Central Europe are expected to see more frequent flash drought events at higher warming levels above 1.5°C. As temperatures increase, new areas experience flash drought in Central Europe. In contrast, the increase in frequency and area is less in the Mediterranean. Across Europe, we expect the mean frequency of flash droughts to increase from around 3 events each decade at 1°C to 5 events at 3°C. The median value of the spatial area covered in flash drought is expected to increase from around 30% at 1°C to close to 44% at 3°C. Each degree of increase in warming is expected to add around one more flash drought event each decade and more than 6% of the area across Europe under flash drought. The threshold of 1.5°C marks a significant increase in the area affected by flash droughts, highlighting the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement targets and adaptation measures to counter such flash drought conditions and safeguard the agricultural economy, food security, and ecosystems.
Yadav et al. (Fri,) studied this question.