Emerging technologies and national security intelligence

Intelligence work shapes and is shaped in turn by emerging technologies. This article is concerned with the current iteration of this dynamic, with the questions of which emerging technologies are likely to impact intelligence work most significantly over the medium-term, and how this impact will manifest. It identifies artificial intelligence and quantum technologies as being the most significant, and claims that their impact will be catalysed by the next generation of data-generating technologies that will continue to proliferate in society. It argues that elements of these emerging technologies have already disrupted core features of intelligence work, but that for the medium-term intelligence work will be characterised by gradual development, rather than abrupt change.