Corruption, Social Inclusion and Exclusion in Post-Subsidy Regime in Nigeria

Despite research on the economic impacts of fuel subsidy removal, how this policy shift has reconfigured corruption patterns, governance dynamics, and social inequalities in Nigeria is understudied. While studies have documented immediate price effects, fiscal adjustments, and macroeconomic consequences, little attention has been paid to the evolving nature of rent-seeking behaviours, institutional adaptations, and exclusionary mechanisms in the post-subsidy era. This study examines the link between corruption, institutional weakness, and social exclusion following Nigeria's 2023 subsidy removal. Employing a meta-synthesis, academic literature, policy documents, and empirical data from 1999-2024 were analysed. Combining institutional theory with social exclusion. Four major themes emerged from the analysis: (1) the decentralisation of corruption from fuel subsidy fraud to palliative distribution networks, (2) disproportionate exclusion of vulnerable groups, including rural populations and women, (3) institutional failures that amplify economic shocks, and (4) political marginalisation through non-participatory policymaking. Key findings reveal that subsidy elimination has not reduced corruption, but rather displaced it to new arenas, particularly social intervention programs. Exclusionary effects are most severe in transportation and education. Institutional weaknesses, exemplified by failed digital payment systems that exclude rural Nigerians, compound these challenges. The abrupt policy implementation further affects public trust by excluding citizen input. The study advances the Corruption-Institution-Exclusion (CIE) framework to explain these dynamics, offering policymakers a tool to anticipate and mitigate unintended consequences of economic reforms. The study recommends transparent social protection mechanisms, inclusive decision-making processes, and institutional capacity building to ensure subsidy reforms achieve their intended equitable outcomes. This research contributes to broader debates about implementing structural reforms in weak institutional environments while protecting vulnerable populations.