Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of China’s agro-processing industry

The agro-processing industry is a key link in restructuring agricultural value chains, promoting rural transformation, and enhancing farmers’ welfare. However, existing studies remain limited in uncovering its spatial evolution and the underlying driving mechanisms. Drawing on nationwide firm-level data of agro-processing enterprises from 2000 to 2022, this study employs multiple spatial analytical approaches to systematically depict the spatiotemporal dynamics of the industry, and applies both the Geodetector and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to identify the main driving factors and their heterogeneous effects. The results reveal that the spatial pattern of China’s agro-processing industry is characterized by simultaneous agglomeration intensification and regional restructuring, with the industrial center of gravity gradually shifting from the southeastern coast toward the central hinterland. Industrial base, economic development, market size, financial services, and knowledge and technology capacity consistently emerge as dominant drivers, while raw-material supply shows no overall significance but has become increasingly influential in recent years. Interaction effects highlight strong synergistic mechanisms between industrial foundations and factors such as population, education, and finance, alongside pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Based on these findings, the study proposes region-specific policy recommendations: in the eastern coastal areas, promote the extension of industries toward high value-added segments and enhance farmers’ participation in value creation; in the central and western regions, strengthen policy support and factor inputs to attract processing capacity; and at the national level, establish a multidimensional and coordinated policy system to foster functional complementarities and achieve balanced upgrading across regions.