Abstract Warming-induced permafrost thaw poses a threat to the structural integrity of transportation infrastructure across the northern permafrost region. In turn, the presence of roads and railways disrupts the thermal stability of permafrost ground. Incorporating these bidirectional interactions between permafrost and infrastructure is crucial for credible projections of future thaw risks. Here, we apply a process-based tiling model to quantify permafrost–infrastructure interactions across the Northern Hemisphere, and to project the future likelihood of thaw-induced infrastructure instability under two scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Under recent climatic conditions (2000--2023), existing transportation infrastructure induces additional ground warming with mean values of 1.16℃ (roads) and 0.61℃ (railways) compared to the ambient ground. By the end of the century (2081-2100), the likelihood of thaw-induced instability rises by 0.10-0.22 for roads and 0.13-0.23 for railways across both scenarios, jeopardizing 84.3-92.0% of roads (serving 92.8-97.8% of the population) and 94.1-99.6% of railways (serving 98.2-99.9%). Our findings underscore the urgent need for implementing effective adaptation and mitigation measures to maintain infrastructure serviceability and resilience in rapidly warming permafrost environments.
Chen et al. (Tue,) studied this question.