Abstract The Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) observed the response of the Van Allen radiation belts to peak solar activity within solar cycle 22. This study analyses relativistic and ultra‐relativistic electron occurrence and loss timescales within the CRRES High Energy Electron Fluxometer (HEEF) data set, including during several strong and severe geomagnetic storms that all, remarkably, flooded the slot region with multi‐MeV electrons. These allow the first definitive multi‐MeV electron lifetimes to be calculated in this region and indicate an elevated risk to satellites in slot region orbits during periods of heightened solar activity. The HEEF outer belt loss timescales are broadly in agreement with those from later solar cycles, but differences include longer‐lasting sub‐MeV electrons near the inner region of the outer belt and faster‐decaying multi‐MeV electrons near geosynchronous orbit. These differences are associated with higher levels of geomagnetic activity, a phenomenon that enables the spread in the results to be parameterised accordingly. The timescales generally appear well‐bounded by Kp‐dependent theoretical predictions, but the variability within the spread is not always well‐ordered by geomagnetic activity. This suggests the limitations of using pitch‐angle diffusion to account for the decay of elevated electrons following geomagnetic storms, and the need for more sophisticated space weather indices for radiation belt forecasting.
Desai et al. (Wed,) studied this question.