Modeling Gas Producibility and Hydrogen Potential—An Eastern Mediterranean Case Study

The transition to low-carbon energy systems demands robust strategies that leverage existing fossil resources while integrating renewable technologies. In this work, a single-cycle Gaussian-based producibility model is developed to forecast natural gas production profiles, domestic consumption, export potential, hydrogen production and revenues, adaptive for untapped natural gas discoveries. Annual natural gas production is represented by a bell curve defined by peak year and maximum capacity, allowing flexible adaptation to different reserve sizes. The model integrates renewable energy adoption and steam–methane reforming to produce hydrogen, while tracking revenue streams from domestic sales, exports and hydrogen markets alongside carbon taxation. Applicability is demonstrated through a case study of Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries, where combined reserves of 2399 bcm generate a production peak of 100 bcm/year in 2035 and deliver 40.71 billion kg of hydrogen by 2050, leaving 411.87 bcm of reserves. A focused Cyprus scenario with 411 bcm of reserves peaks at 10 bcm/year, produces 4.07 billion kg of hydrogen and retains 212.29 bcm of reserves. Cumulative revenues span from USD 84.37 billion under low hydrogen pricing to USD 247.29 billion regionally, while the Cyprus-focused case yields USD 1.79 billion to USD 18.08 billion. These results validate the model’s versatility for energy transition planning, enabling strategic insights into infrastructure deployment, market dynamics and resource management in gas-rich regions.