Evaluation of Supply Chain Performance Under Disruptive Conditions

Unpredictable global environment, supply chains are increasingly exposed to disruptions caused by armed conflicts, pandemics, extreme weather events, and geopolitical shocks. These conditions create severe imbalances between supply and demand, often pushing traditional inventory systems beyond their operational limits. In response to this growing complexity, this paper introduces a hybrid modeling approach that captures the simultaneous presence of shortage and overstock zones within disrupted supply networks.The model incorporates a stochastic disruption coefficient , which reflects the real-time operational degradation of the system. This allows for a more realistic simulation of risk accumulation and adaptive inventory behavior. The total cost function accounts for both holding costs and penalty costs for unmet demand. By integrating classical methods–such as Economic Order Quantity with Overstock Costs and Newsvendor models–the framework balances planning under uncertainty with operational flexibility.Simulation results reveal a two-phase cost pattern: initial disruptions drive shortage-related losses, while overcompensation in the recovery period leads to inventory surpluses and rising holding costs. This double-wave dynamic underscores the need for responsive inventory control systems capable of adapting to both sudden and prolonged disruptions.The study contributes to the field by providing a flexible modeling tool that captures the nuanced cost behavior of supply chains under stress. It offers valuable insights for designing resilient logistics strategies, minimizing losses, and maintaining service continuity in volatile environments