Iran's Influence on Regional Processes During the Second Karabakhk War (2020) and Southern Azerbaijanis

This article examines Iran’s position toward Azerbaijan during the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war and the reaction of Southern Azerbaijanis to this stance. Over the past few years, Armenia’s increasingly aggressive posture against Azerbaijan, regardless of Azerbaijan’s internal socio-economic dynamics, the roles of Turkey and Russia in the conflict, and the broader international context, culminated in Azerbaijan’s successful liberation of its historical territories. Armenia’s defeat—despite Iran’s long-standing support since the onset of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict—has exacerbated Tehran’s concerns, primarily due to the issue of Southern Azerbaijan, which has historical roots spanning two centuries. Iran’s strategic maneuvers during the war were largely aimed at addressing the Southern Azerbaijan question and undermining the Republic of Azerbaijan. The alignment of Southern Azerbaijani nationalist forces—including political organizations, intellectuals, cultural activists, students, and business figures—in support of Azerbaijan expanded significantly. While the Second Karabakh War did not serve as a universal source of inspiration for all socio-political segments of Southern Azerbaijanis, it significantly bolstered national movements and contributed to their consolidation. Iran's policy regarding the Karabakh conflict, which is based on double standards and favors Armenians, has increased tensions between the Iranian regime and South Azerbaijanis, further deepening ethnic divisions. Currently, Iran’s opposition to geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus, particularly its resistance to the opening of the Zangezur Corridor—which it deems a "red line"—is not solely motivated by geopolitical and geoeconomic concerns but is also intrinsically linked to the Southern Azerbaijan issue.