Russian Economy: Change in the Growth Factors#

The article analyzes the current state of the Russian economy. It is shown that due to active economic policies in 2022–2023, the consequences of extensive sanctions pressure were largely mitigated. At the same time, by mid-2023, the measures of expansionary monetary policy were increasingly scaled back. By 2025, the fiscal stimulus also began to wane. At the same time, clear indicators of a cooling trend in economic activity have emerged. The adaptive development model has revealed certain limitations, prompting the need to explore new growth factors. The new model of economic development will be shaped by constraints in both labor and capital. In the coming years, the labor market will most significantly be affected by the development of the education system, which would require the training of personnel with the necessary qualifications across the entire country. The key growth factor on the part of capital should be a large-scale modernization of production facilities, primarily in equity-generating industries. The characteristics of the new development model may include an expanded role for the real sector of the economy alongside an increased significance of human capital sectors, i.e., education and healthcare. At the same time, the significance of trade, transportation, logistics, and financial intermediation may decrease due to the application of new technologies.