Spatial Interdependence, Spillover Effects and Moderating Mechanisms of the Digital Economy on Carbon Productivity: Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Models

In the context of China’s “dual carbon” strategy, carbon productivity serves as a central in dicator for coordinating economic development with carbon emissions. While the digital economy reshapes spatial economic configurations and affects regional carbon productivity, its spatial interdependence and spillover effects remain insufficiently explored. Our study constructs composite indicators to measure both digital economy development and carbon productivity, examining 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022 using the super-efficiency SBM model and exploratory spatial data analysis. Spatial regression is applied to assess the spatial influences of the digital economy and the moderating role of industrial structure transforming. Results reveal that: (1) China’s carbon productivity has improved overall but with notable regional disparities; (2) a U-shaped linkage between digital development and carbon productivity is confirmed, with early-stage suppression and later environmental benefits; (3) industrial rationalization and upgrading significantly enhance this relationship, though structural frictions remain obstacles.