Early Evidence for Isotropic Planetary Obliquities in Young Super-Jupiter Systems

Abstract This decade has seen the first measurements of extrasolar planetary obliquities, characterizing how an exoplanet’s spin axis is oriented relative to its orbital axis. These measurements are enabled by combining projected rotational velocities, planetary rotation periods, and astrometric orbits for directly imaged super-Jupiters. This approach constrains both the spin axis and orbital inclination relative to the line of sight, allowing obliquity measurements for individual systems and offering new insights into their formation. To test whether these super-Jupiters form more like scaled-up planets or scaled-down stars, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework to infer their population-level obliquity distribution. Using a single-parameter Fisher distribution, we compare two models: a planet-like formation scenario ( κ = 5) predicting moderate alignment, versus a brown-dwarf-like formation scenario ( κ = 0) predicting isotropic obliquities. Based on a sample of four young super-Jupiter systems, we find early evidence favoring the isotropic case with a Bayes factor of 15, consistent with turbulent fragmentation.