Urban Design and Resilient Cities: Simulating Crowd Behavior to Reduce Urban Risk

The growing incidence of natural and man-made disasters, exacerbated by climate change, has highlighted the role of urban planning and design in reducing the impact of the risks they pose. This refers to pre-disaster recovery planning (PDRP), an innovative practice that aims to improve the response of urban contexts affected by a disaster, with urban planning actions implemented in peacetime, i.e., before the disaster occurs. This paper presents a methodology that integrates agent-based simulation and safety-based urban design within a sustainability-oriented urban planning framework. The methodology aims to support the design of safer and more resilient public spaces, focusing on open areas within heritage districts and operating within a sustainability-oriented urban planning framework. The proposed approach integrates simulation and design to evaluate the performance of existing spatial layouts under stress conditions and explore alternative configurations that optimize evacuation dynamics and minimize risks. The result of applying the simulation to the current urban context therefore allows for the identification of appropriate urban design techniques and practices aimed at defining alternative spatial scenarios and improving the urban form in terms of its evacuation performance.