Container terminal efficiency under external shocks: A hybrid DEA-Regression analysis of Dar es Salaam port (2019–2023)

Purpose. This paper evaluates the technical Efficiency of Dar es Salaam Port’s container terminal operations over the period 2019–2023, explicitly accounting for the influence of macroeconomic conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic on performance metrics. The study addresses a critical gap in port efficiency research by disentangling internal operational capability from external contextual factors in a developing-economy maritime gateway serving landlocked East and Central African countries. Methodology. A two-stage hybrid analytical framework integrates input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with Contextual Value Added (CVA) regression. DEA efficiency scores are computed using a three-year rolling window approach with inputs (quay length, gantry cranes, terminal area) and outputs (container throughput, vessel calls). Second-stage ordinary least squares regression isolates the effects of GDP, trade volume, and pandemic disruption on measured efficiency. Quantitative findings are triangulated with qualitative stakeholder surveys (n=45) and semi-structured interviews to capture operational perceptions and institutional constraints. Results. DEA analysis reveals temporal efficiency variation ranging from 0.838 (2019) to 0.966 (2021), with post-pandemic decline to 0.890 (2023). CVA regression identifies a statistically significant negative relationship between trade volume and efficiency (β = −1.76×10⁻⁵, p = 0.03), indicating binding infrastructure constraints. The COVID-19 dummy exhibits a paradoxical positive coefficient (β = +0.090, p = 0.02), reflecting efficiency gains under suppressed demand rather than genuine productivity enhancement. Theoretical contribution. This study advances port efficiency assessment by demonstrating that unadjusted frontier methods can mask capacity deficits when external demand fluctuates. The hybrid DEA-CVA framework enables evidence-based attribution of efficiency sources, enhancing policy relevance. Practical implications. Findings underscore the urgent need for infrastructure expansion and procedural digitalization to accommodate regional trade growth under the African Continental Free Trade Area. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure