Advancing training effectiveness prediction in mass sport through longitudinal data: A mathematical model approach based on the Fitness-Fatigue Model

Despite the critical need for scientific training load assessment in mass sports, the Fitness-Fatigue Model (FFM) requires further mathematical optimization and practical output indicators. The aim of this study was to optimize the mathematical relationship between “adaptation” and “fatigue” in the FFM, identify generalizable model output indicators, and evaluate its performance in predicting training effectiveness in mass sport. To account for the nonlinear and time-varying characteristics of training effectiveness, this study proposed new mathematical assumptions and optimized parameters against individual longitudinal data. The external load (speed and wattage) and internal load (wearable-compatible heart rate variability HRV and heart rate recovery HRR related indicators) of each training day were collected for 28–42 days per person (420 paired data from 13 subjects during 12 weeks of medium-intensity continuous cycling). The longitudinal data were used to perform parameter estimation and model evaluation for each individual separately. When the optimal model output indicator was selected, the R 2 values of the optimized model ranged from 0.61–0.95, with fitting root mean square error (RMSE) at 0.07–0.37, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in predictive ability assessment at 3.99%−31.99%. However, a few individuals had larger fitting errors (minimum R 2 of 0.32, maximum RMSE of 0.90) and predictive errors (maximum MAPE of 86.57%) when the output indicator was inappropriate. The original model generally has lower R 2 and higher RMSE and MAPE. This shows the optimization of functional relationships and the application of individual longitudinal data have resulted in better performance of the model, but optimal indicator selection varies by individual. Furthermore, HRV and HRR related indicators are generalizable model output indicators that can be used to predict training effectiveness in mass sports through wearable devices and machine learning technology. However, the study has limitations including the homogeneous sample and single training type. Future research should validate the model across different sports and populations, investigating the factors affecting model fitting and prediction.