Trends and Future Projections of Neurological Disorder Burden in Europe,1990-2021: Latest Insights from the GBD 2021 Study

Background: The systematic assessment of the burden of common neurological disorders in Europe based on latest epidemiological data remains lacking. Methods: We extracted data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, prevalence, and incidence of neurological disorders from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study from 1990 to 2021. Future trends over the next 15 years were projected using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling. Results: In 2021, the age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDRs) of neurological disorders in Europe (1,502.3/100,000 population) was significantly higher than the global average (1,385.1/100,000 population). Among them, the ASDRs in Western Europe (1,584.23/100,000 population) was notably higher than that in Central Europe (1,354.65/100,000 population) and Eastern Europe (1,375.03/100,000 population). Ischemic stroke (31.98%) and Alzheimer's disease (20.24%) were the major contributors to the disease burden in Europe. Age-stratified analysis revealed that the elderly population(≥65 years old) bore the burden of stroke and Alzheimer's disease and other dementia. The overall disease burden was higher in females. From 1990 to 2021, data indicated a significant decline in the disease burden of ischemic stroke, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, encephalitis, idiopathic epilepsy, intracerebral hemorrhage, and meningitis. Conversely, Parkinson's disease and other neurological disorders showed an upward trend. ARIMA forecast analysis suggested that from 2021 to 2036, the predicted ASDRs for Neurological disorders would be lower compared to previous levels. Conclusion: Neurological disorders impose a greater burden in Europe than globally, primarily driven by ischemic stroke and Alzheimer's disease, with Western Europe, elderly, and female populations being disproportionately affected.