Do Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, Urbanisation, and Economic Growth Drive Brazil's Ecological Footprint? A Quantile ARDL Approach

ABSTRACT Brazil faces a persistent environmental dilemma—rapid economic growth and urbanisation continue to intensify ecological degradation despite major advances in renewable energy development. This study investigates how natural resource rents, renewable energy consumption, urbanisation pressure, and economic growth affect Brazil's ecological footprint from 1990Q1 to 2024Q4 using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model. The results show a nonlinear and quantile‐dependent relationship among the variables. Economic growth exerts a negative short‐run effect on EFP at lower quantiles but turns positive in the long run at higher quantiles. Natural resource rents are insignificant in the short run but negatively related to EFP in the long run, reflecting efficient resource governance. Renewable energy has a consistent negative effect across all quantiles, while urbanisation displays a mixed short‐run impact but becomes environmentally beneficial over time through improved infrastructure and technological adaptation. Based on the findings, policymakers should strengthen renewable energy adoption, enforce sustainable resource governance, and promote compact, low‐carbon urban development.