Mapping Malaria Susceptibility in the Oti Region of Ghana Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Retrospective Observational Study

ABSTRACT Background Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Ghana, with the entire population at risk of infection. Although the national prevalence has declined in recent years, malaria continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality. Aim This retrospective observational study aimed to map malaria risk zones in the Oti Region using environmental factors. Methods Malaria incidence and hotspots were analyzed using the Getis‐Ord Gi* statistic in Esri ArcMap. Environmental factors influencing Anopheles mosquito breeding and malaria transmission were assessed using a Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) model. Generalized additive model (GAM) and support vector machine (SVM) were applied to predict malaria risk across the Oti Region. Results Malaria cases were unevenly distributed across the Oti Region, with Krachi East and Nkwanta South identified as persistent hotspots for malaria. These regions reported 91,376 and 73,592 cases, respectively, over 3 years. Furthermore, elevation (with feature importance, 27.60%), land surface temperature (LST) (from 22°C to 32°C) (25.48%), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (23.12%), and distance to rivers (20.00%) were the significant environmental factors affecting mosquito breeding and, consequently, malaria susceptibility within the study area. Conclusion These findings provide valuable insights for guiding targeted control efforts and resource allocation in the Oti Region, focusing on addressing the identified environmental risk factors to mitigate malaria transmission in the area.