Comparison of dynamical dark energy with ΛCDM in light of DESI DR2

Abstract We present an updated reconstruction of the dark energy equation of state, w(a), using the newly released DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data in combination with Pantheon+ and DES5Y Type Ia supernovae measurements, respectively. Building on our previous analysis, which employed a non-parametric flexknot reconstruction approach, we examine whether the evidence for dynamical dark energy persists with the improved precision of the DESI DR2 dataset. We find that while the overall qualitative structure of w(a) remains consistent with our earlier findings, the statistical support for dynamical dark energy is reduced when considering DESI DR2 data alone, particularly for more complex flexknot models with higher numbers of knots. However, the evidence for simpler dynamical models, such as wCDM and CPL (which correspond to n = 1 and n = 2 knots respectively), increases relative to ΛCDM with DESI DR2 alone, with CPL being the preferred dynamical model, consistent with previous DESI analyses. When combined with Pantheon+ data, the conclusions remain broadly consistent with our earlier work, but when instead combined with DES5Y supernovae data, there is an increased preference for flexknot models for all values of n considered. This results in all such models being preferred over ΛCDM, with the CPL model being the most favoured by a Bayes factor of ∼2.3 relative to ΛCDM.