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Eds Peter Bennett, Kenneth Calman Oxford University Press, £49.50, pp 272 ISBN 0 19 263037 7 Rating: !Graphic1 !Graphic2 An emerging disease affects 2% of the population, and treatment is effective only if the disease is caught early. Once symptoms occur treatment is no longer effective, and patients experience a slow painful death. A good screening test exists, with sensitivity approaching 100% and specificity of 90%. What is the probability of having the disease if someone tests positive on the screening test? Students of public health medicine may recognise this scenario as the classic example of positive predictive value. Bayesian analysis … 1: /embed/inline-graphic-1.gif 2: /embed/inline-graphic-2.gif
John C. Licciardone (Sat,) studied this question.