Estimation of Cotton LAI and Yield Through Assimilation of the DSSAT Model and Unmanned Aerial System Images

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a primary global commercial crop, and accurate monitoring of its growth and yield prediction are essential for optimizing water management. This study integrates leaf area index (LAI) data derived from unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery into the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model to improve cotton growth simulation and yield estimation. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited higher estimation accuracy for the cotton LAI during the squaring stage (R2 = 0.56, p < 0.05), whereas the modified triangle vegetation index (MTVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) demonstrated higher and more stable accuracy in the flowering and boll-setting stages (R2 = 0.64 and R2 = 0.76, p < 0.05). After assimilating LAI data, the optimized DSSAT model accurately represented canopy development and yield variation under different irrigation levels. Compared with the DSSAT, the assimilated model reduced yield prediction error from 40–52% to 3.6–6.3% under 30%, 60%, and 90% irrigation. These findings demonstrate that integrating UAS-derived LAI data with the DSSAT substantially enhances model accuracy and robustness, providing an effective approach for precision irrigation and sustainable cotton management.