Hybrid Explainable Machine Learning Models with Metaheuristic Optimization for Performance Prediction of Self-Compacting Concrete

Accurate prediction of the mechanical and rheological properties of self-compacting concrete (SCC) is critical for mixture design and engineering decision-making; however, conventional empirical approaches often struggle to capture the coupled nonlinear relationships among mixture variables. To address this challenge, this study develops an integrated and interpretable hybrid machine learning (ML) framework by coupling three ML models (RF, XGBoost, and SVR) with five metaheuristic optimizers (SSA, PSO, GWO, GA, and WOA), and by incorporating SHAP and partial dependence (PDP) analyses for explainability. Two SCC datasets with nine mixture parameters are used to predict 28-day compressive strength (CS) and slump flow (SF). The results show that SSA provides the most stable hyperparameter optimization, and the best-performing SSA–RF model achieves test R2 values of 0.967 for CS and 0.958 for SF, with RMSE values of 2.295 and 23.068, respectively. Feature importance analysis indicates that the top five variables contribute more than 80% of the predictive information for both targets. Using only these dominant features, a simplified SSA–RF model reduces computation time from 7.3 s to 5.9 s and from 9.7 s to 6.1 s for the two datasets, respectively, while maintaining engineering-level prediction accuracy, and the SHAP and PDP analyses provide transparent feature-level explanations and verify that the learned relationships are physically consistent with SCC mixture-design principles, thereby increasing the reliability and practical applicability of the proposed framework. Overall, the proposed framework delivers accurate prediction, transparent interpretation, and practical guidance for SCC mixture optimization.