River ice is a common natural phenomenon in cold regions during winter, and it is also one of the key factors that must be considered in the development and utilization of water resources in these areas. In this paper, based on a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and ice dynamics model coupled with a linear thermodynamic process, this study simulates and validates the formation, decay, transport, and accumulation of river ice at the Toudaoguai reach of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia during the winters of 2019–2020 and 2020–2021. The influence of different parameters on backwater level variations caused by ice jams is further investigated using a modified Morris sensitivity analysis method. The results show that (1) the coupled thermal-dynamic model can accurately simulate the formation, transport, and accumulation process of river ice in natural river, as well as the freeze-up patterns and corresponding hydraulic characteristics. (2) Due to the influence of river topography, flow rate, and flow density, the freeze-up form is slightly different in different years, and the low discharge process favor a more stable freeze-up. (3) According to the modified Morris screening method, discharge (Q) and ice concentration (N) are the most sensitive to the change in the backwater water level after the ice jam, and the sensitivity is more than 50%. The next most sensitive factor is the ice-cover roughness (ni), whereas ice porosity (ef) exhibits a negative sensitivity to the water level after ice jam. Thus, this study provides effective tools to reproduce the process of river ice transport and accumulation in the reach of the Yellow River (Inner Mongolia section) and offers technical support and insights for ice-flood prevention and mitigation in this section.
Ma et al. (Mon,) studied this question.