Calibration and Verification of a Coupled Model for the Coastal and Estuaries in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

This study focuses on the calibration and verification of a large-scale coupled numerical model to simulate the complex hydrodynamic–wave–sediment transport processes in the coastal and estuarine regions of the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam. Using the MIKE 21/3 modeling system, the research integrates Hydrodynamics (HD), Spectral Wave (SW), and Mud Transport (MT) modules across a computational domain of 270 × 300 km. The models were rigorously tested using field measurement data from three distinct periods: May 2004 (dry season calibration), September 2017 (first verification), and June 2024 (second verification). The results from the hydrodynamic model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting water levels, with the average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values ranging between 4.4% and 5.8%. The wave spectral model showed reliable performance, with the average RMSE values for wave height ranging from 15.1% to 18.0%. Furthermore, the Mud Transport module successfully captured suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), yielding average RMSE values between 26.0% and 32.1% after the fine-tuning of site-specific parameters such as critical shear stress for erosion and deposition. The study highlights the critical importance of utilizing site-specific sedimentological parameters to accurately predict morphological changes in highly dynamic estuarine environments. This validated model provides a robust tool for assessing coastal erosion and developing protection measures in regions that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and human activities.