Physics-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Fourier-Based Signal Decomposition

Photovoltaic Systems have been a long-standing challenge to integrate with electrical Power Grids due to the randomness of solar irradiance. Deep Learning (DL) has potential to forecast solar irradiance; however, black-box DL models typically do not offer interpretation, nor can they easily distinguish between deterministic astronomical cycles, and random meteorological variability. The objective of this study was to develop and apply a new Physics-Aware Deep Learning Framework that identifies and utilizes physical attributes of solar irradiance via Fourier-based signal decomposition. The proposed method decomposes the time-series into polynomial trend, Fourier-based seasonal component and stochastic residual, each of which are processed within different neural network paths. A wide variety of architectures were tested (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)), at multiple historical window sizes and forecast horizons on a diverse dataset from a three-year span. All of the architectures tested demonstrated improved accuracy and robustness when using the physics aware decomposition as opposed to all other methods. Of the architectures tested, the GRU architecture was the most accurate and performed well in terms of overall evaluation. The GRU model had an RMSE of 78.63 W/m2 and an R2 value of 0.9281 for 15 min ahead forecasting. Additionally, the Fourier-based methodology was able to reduce the maximum absolute error by approximately 15% to 20%, depending upon the architecture used, and therefore it provided a way to reduce the impact of the larger errors in forecasting during periods of unstable weather. Overall, this framework represents a viable option for both physically interpretive and computationally efficient real-time solar forecasting that provides a bridge between Physical Modeling and Data-Driven Intelligence.