Analytical assessment of trends and prospects of the sunflower seed market in Ukraine under current challenges

The sunflower market is a strategic segment of Ukraine’s agrarian economy and has undergone sharp transformations under contemporary challenges, especially during the war. The purpose of the study was to conduct an analytical assessment of the trends and prospects of the sunflower seed market in Ukraine. Market indices were used to evaluate pre-war and wartime dynamics, while linear regression revealed price linkages between sunflower seed and sunflower oil. Obtained results showed that since 2022, sunflower seed exports increased due to several factors: disruption of processing facilities, blocked ports, urgent need for revenue, supply shortages, and changes in export policy. During this period, both sunflower seed and sunflower oil prices rose significantly. The Black Sea Grain Initiative (July 2022) restored agricultural trade flows, leading to a price decrease. Simultaneously, the EU Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) temporarily removed import duties and quotas on Ukrainian products, supporting exports. However, ATMs termination in June 2025 may reintroduce tariffs and quotas, potentially reshaping trade conditions. Despite risks, sunflower seed production remains highly profitable, with profitability ranging from 35-50% in recent years, motivating enterprises to expand cultivation. Regression analysis confirmed strong price interdependence: a 1 UAH/t increase in seed prices raises oil prices by 1.47 UAH/t. Overall, Ukraine retains strong potential to expand its sunflower seed market, especially through greater domestic processing into sunflower oil for export. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that its results can be used: by producers – to gain a better understanding of the trends and current situation in the sunflower seed market; by government institutions – for the development of effective agricultural policy, particularly in the area of infrastructural investments; by the academic community and students – to deepen their knowledge of agricultural markets and methods of their analysis