A Formal Wager on the Perpendicular Spin Alignment and Vortex‑Origin of Jupiter‑Mass Binary Objects (JuMBOs)

This document presents a formal, testable hypothesis on the formation mechanism of Jupiter-Mass Binary Objects (JuMBOs), recently discovered by JWST in the Orion Nebula. The author challenges the prevailing interpretation that JuMBOs arise predominantly from chaotic N-body ejections or random capture events, proposing instead that a significant subset originates from coherent vortex fragmentation within magnetized filamentary clouds. Core predictions: Geometric signature: Spin axes of JuMBO components will be mutually parallel and perpendicular to the orbital separation vector (S₁ ∥ S₂ ⊥ R₁₂) Kinematic signature: Components will exhibit opposite rotational handedness (counterrotating), reflecting fragmentation of a single vortex structure Compositional signature: Binary components will show correlated atmospheric compositions, isotopic ratios, and bulk properties (ΔM/H < 0.1 dex) The document establishes quantitative success criteria (n ≥ 15 objects, p < 0.001 statistical threshold, decision timeline: 2030-2035) and outlines observational strategies using JWST spectroscopy, ALMA/VLA radio morphology, and polarimetry. Recent radio astrometry by Rodríguez et al. (2025) constraining JuMBO proper motions to < 6 km/s already disfavors high-velocity ejection scenarios, making spin-orbit tests particularly decisive. This work provides a falsifiable framework to empirically distinguish between stochastic (ejection/capture) and coherent (vortex-driven) formation pathways for free-floating planetary-mass binaries.