The presence of Türkiye in central Asia and its consequences for Iran

Introduction: Middle Asia or Central Asia is a vast land with a long history in the heart of the Asian continent. Due to the vast resources available in Central Asia, this region has become a place for global and regional powers to compete. Türkiye is no exception to this rule. This country has made many efforts to expand its presence in the region in the last three decades. In recent years, especially after 2016, this presence was not without a plan and out of excitement, but in a clear frame of mind and with necessary credits, Türkiye has tried to create a stable and effective presence in the region. The presence of regional powers in Central Asia is not limited to Türkiye. Due to many common cultural features with the countries of the region and its special geographical location, Iran has always made a continuous effort to be present in Central Asia. Considering the complex relations and historical rivalry of the two countries, the efforts of each cannot be without influencing the other. Research question: The main question that we intend to answer in this research is what are the consequences of Türkiye's presence in Central Asia on Iran and what is the mechanism of these consequences? Research hypothesis: Based on this new reading of geopolitics, it is possible to hypothesize that the presence of Türkiye in Central Asia will lead to the removal of Iran from the transit and energy corridors of the region, as well as the threat to the territorial integrity of Iran due to the expansion of Pan-Turkism. Methodology and theoretical framework: The analysis of this article is based on the trend impact analysis method. The process is called regular and continuous transformations of data over time. In this method, the process is affected by a sequence of events, and by events we mean significant events that may play an important role in shaping the future. The theoretical framework of this article is based on the three-level reading of the international system along with geopolitical factors. This new reading of geopolitics is taken from the opinion of Mohiuddin Mesbahi in the article “free and restricted: Iran and the international system”. Our question can also be put in this new format and reading. Results and discussion: In this research, we have looked for the consequences of Türkiye's presence in Central Asia on Iran. After raising our question, we reviewed previous research to find an answer. Despite addressing the presence of these countries in the region in some articles, no specific research has been done regarding the consequences of Türkiye's presence in Central Asia on Iran. Therefore, we turned to theories to find our answer, and for this purpose. Then we tried to find the answer to our question by using the “trend research” method. For this purpose, we examined Türkiye's presence in the region in the last three decades. Türkiye's emotional presence in the nineties failed and the efforts of Erdogan's government centered on the opinions of Ahmet Davutoglu's were not very successful, but after the 2016 coup and internal and external changes, a new era emerged in the relations between Turkey and the region. In the following, we examined Iran's presence in the region and finally addressed our main issue, which is the consequences of Türkiye's presence in the region on Iran. Türkiye's presence in Central Asia at all three domestic, regional and international levels has consequences for Iran in the region in cultural, Journal of Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 16, No.1, Autumn & Winter 2024 155 economic and political-military fields. In the economic field, Türkiye will strengthen its infrastructure by joining “the Belt and Road Initiative” and by bypassing Iran, in addition to using the advantages of the right of transit and by attracting Chinese capital, the country will strengthen its infrastructure, and the capital will flow to Turkish projects instead of Iran. In addition, in the geopolitical or political- military field, bypassing Iran in two directions, east-west and north- south, both in the field of transit and in the field of energy, weakens Iran's strategic position and erodes its geopolitics. On the other hand, with the expansion of annexationist and pan-Turkish ideas in the direction of greater convergence with the region, in addition to threatening Iran's territorial integrity with Turkification of the space, it leaves no room for Iran's presence in the region. Conclusion: Türkiye's presence in Central Asia at domestic, regional and international levels has consequences for Iran in the region in all three cultural, economic and political-military fields. In the economic field, Türkiye will strengthen its infrastructure by joining the Belt and Road Initiative and by bypassing Iran, in addition to using the advantages of the right of transit and by attracting Chinese capital, the country will strengthen its infrastructure, and the capital will flow to Turkish projects instead of Iran. In addition, in the geopolitical or political-military field, bypassing Iran in two directions, east-west and north-south, both in the field of transit and in the field of energy, weakens Iran's strategic position and erodes its geopolitics. On the other hand, with the expansion of annexationist and pan-Turkish ideas in the direction of greater convergence with the region, in addition to threatening Iran's territorial integrity with Turkification of the space, it leaves no room for Iran's presence in the region.