Europe's Choice: Getting Out of—or Getting Lost in—the Labyrinth of the Interregnum

This discussion paper explores the concept of the European Union as a political community, framing it as a foundational premise for advancing deeper integration and cohesion across Europe. It argues that under conditions of cultural and normative diversity and fragmented political agency, the EU can evolve into a concrete and viable unified community only by coupling shared values and societal trust with coordinated capacities in areas such as security, digital governance, and economic resilience. Rather than treating integration as a purely institutional or technical project, the paper conceptualizes the EU political community as an active framework through which collective autonomy, democratic legitimacy, and strategic agency can be constructed and sustained. Today, we are not merely witnessing geopolitical competition, but a profound erosion of international law and global norms. The EU faces a major geopolitical disruption and risks falling behind due to the structural dependencies it has developed with major global powers. Europe has long relied on China for technology, trade, and critical supply chains; on the United States for defense, security, financial systems, cloud computing, and AI infrastructure; and on Russia for energy, particularly natural gas. These dependencies are not only material but also value-based: the EU has relied on the alignment of liberal democratic norms with the United States, an alignment that is increasingly fraying as U.S. foreign policy priorities shift. Additional dependencies include global semiconductor supply, rare earth minerals, digital platforms dominated by U.S. tech giants, and key financial instruments that tie Europe to the dollar system. In this context, the EU must return to a self-reflective vision of itself—the “open European project”—and take its own strategic autonomy seriously. Strategic autonomy should not mean inward-looking self-obsession, but rather the ability to act independently and reduce critical reliance on external actors, particularly the U.S., China, and Russia. Current U.S. policy documents confirm that these shifts are no longer hypothetical; they reflect the realignment of global interests. Alone, EU member states cannot navigate these mounting geopolitical pressures. Only through a coordinated European strategy—strengthening defense, securing critical technologies, diversifying energy and supply chains, and reaffirming shared values—can Europe preserve its sovereignty, resilience, and capacity to act as a meaningful global actor.