What question did this study set out to answer?

This study aims to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of tropical cyclones in Australia from 1973 to 1980 and assess statistical prediction methods.

February 5, 2026

A diagnostic study of tropical cyclone forecasting in Australia

Key Points

This study aims to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of tropical cyclones in Australia from 1973 to 1980 and assess statistical prediction methods.
Analyzed tropical cyclone position and intensity forecasts from 1973 to 1980
Evaluated the accuracy of movement and intensity forecasts
Assessed statistical objective schemes to predict storm movement
Average errors in forecasts were large, but movement forecast accuracy improved over time
Intensity forecasts consistently demonstrated large errors
Past track data typically explained more variance than synoptic data for short-term predictions
Synoptic data became more important for longer-term forecasts

Abstract

An analysis is presented of tropical cyclone position and intensity forecasts issued operationally within the Australian region during the period 1973 to 1980. It is found that although the average errors were large the accuracy in movement forecasts steadily increased during the study period. Similarly, intensity forecasts were found to exhibit large errors. A diagnostic study of the ability of statistical objective schemes to predict tropical cyclone movement is also undertaken. Even when storm motion is difficult to forecast, past track data most often explain more variance than the synoptic data. However, the latter tend to become a more important predictive source for longer-term forecasts. A brief outline of research with important operational applications for the future is also given.

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