What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to evaluate advancements in prediction accuracy due to resolution enhancements in GASP.

February 5, 2026

Evolution of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Global Assimilation and Prediction system. Part 2: resolution ehancements and case studies

Key Points

The aim is to evaluate advancements in prediction accuracy due to resolution enhancements in GASP.
Performed resolution sensitivity experiments to isolate the effects of model resolution.
Conducted a parallel operational trial for replacing the GASP configuration.
Compared predictions from the new multivariate system to those from ECMWF and US National Meteorological Center.
Included two case studies to demonstrate operational capabilities.
Medium-range predictions showed improved skill with increased horizontal and vertical resolution.
The new R31Ll9 multivariate configuration outperformed the previous univariate system.
Significant cases demonstrated enhancements in predicting severe weather and stratospheric conditions.

Abstract

This paper substantiates and discusses the progressive improvements in medium-range prediction skill resulting from enhancements to the horizontal and vertical resolution of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’ s Global Assimilation and Prediction system (GASP). Resolution sensitivity experiments designed to measure the effects of an increase in prediction model resolution alone are described. The results of a parallel operational trial which led to the replacement of the wave 31, nine-level, univariate configuration of GASP by the corresponding wave 31, 19-level (R31Ll9) multivariate system are then presented. The operational R31Ll9, and experimental R53Ll9 predictions are compared with each other and with corresponding operational predictions, at still higher resolutions, from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and from the US National Meteorological Center. Finally, two case studies, one a significant severe weather event, and the other a prediction of the spring 1993 stratospheric polar vortex, are shown to illustrate the current capabilities of the system.

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